I've considered that it's not wise to predict seats, especially as we have no inclination at all of how things are really going! It's also due to the fact that I don't want to appear a) over confident b) too sceptical- these are extremes of feelings as you are no doubt aware, but it's hard to grasp a happy medium at a time like this- when winning the most seats possible is all we can think about as Plaid candidates! I will give you some insight in to what I am thinking nevertheless.....
I would like to think that we will pick up seats in this election due to the enormous amount of work that we have put in to strategy, work on ground level, and campaigning. Whether this happens in the North, Mid and West, or the South Wales Valleys is another question in itself.
Obviously, whatever happens we will learn from this campaign, and develop for the future, but I would especially like to see Helen Mary Jones win Llanelli. She is an excellent politician. If she loses tonight, she will be greatly missed from the Plaid Assembly team.
It would also be a spirit lifting exercise for us to possibly win back one of the South Wales seats that we won in1999. Islwyn, Rhondda and Caerphilly are ripe for the taking, with first class candidates. It would give us the boost in the Valleys that we need to broaden Plaid's appeal.
To be realistic for a moment, I'm not sure if we will pick up some Valleys seats which are still largely Labour dominated. Case in point could be Merthyr Tydfil, and my reasoning being that there are so many Independent candidates that they will inevitably split their votes against Huw Lewis. I hope that I am wrong of course, and that Plaid will save the day in order to rid Merthyr of the Unionist, Penarth boy that is Huw Lewis!
Rhodri Glyn Thomas is a cert to win in Camarthen East, not that this is newsworthy. What is worth keeping a look out for nevertheless is Plaid's Chair, John Dixon, who is standing in Camarthen West. He's rumoured to be well on the way to a win tonight. Arfon, as a new constituency is also one to look out for, and I hope that the experienced Alun Ffred will win by a long shot.
Elin Jones has run a superb campaign in Ceredigion, with excellent activists on hand( and staff!). I was present at Simon Thomas's count in the last Westminster election, and I can honestly say from that experience alone - a political party cannot take anything for granted.
On the issue of Independent candidates, I will keep an eye on whether or not Marek retains his seat in Wrexham, and Ron Davies's influence on Caerphilly ( which I happen to think is minimal). Trish Law will retain Blaenau Gwent, there is no doubt about it.
I haven't mentioned all of the constituencies for the election. I'll leave other bloggers to predict, or give thoughts on the rest!
In the meantime, I've been to some of the polling stations today here in Neath at the quieter times, but there is indication that the percentage of those voting is up. This might be something to do with the weather, or if we are more positive, it could be to do with a renewed interest in Welsh politics- or a thirst to oust Labour once and for all....
We'll soon find out... ......
1 comment:
I would like to thank Rhodri Morgan for his lack lustre tenure which has made people sit up and take note and get back involved in politics.
Also, helps to vote for a local girl with ambition and vision.
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